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本文以1995-2008年数据为基础,运用协整检验及误差修正模型对美国消费需求与我国对美出口贸易的关系进行研究。结果表明,美国消费需求变动与我国对美出口贸易之间存在一个正相关的稳定的协整关系,且两者互为格兰杰因果关系。由实证结果可得出以下对策建议:我们应正确认识美国消费需求对我国对美出口影响的两面性,调整对美出口商品结构,开拓美国高端产品市场;拓展出口方式,推动出口市场多元化发展。
Based on the data of 1995-2008, this paper uses the cointegration test and error correction model to study the relationship between the consumer demand in the United States and China's export trade with the United States. The results show that there is a positive and stable co-ordinated relationship between the change of consumer demand in the United States and China's export trade with the United States, and the two are Granger causality. From the empirical results, we can draw the following suggestions: We should correctly understand the dual aspects of the impact of US consumer demand on China's exports to the United States, adjust the structure of exports to the United States and explore the U.S. high-end product market. We should expand the mode of export and promote the diversified development of the export market.