美元贬值趋势至少持续到2010年3月,失业率是美元由贬转升需要关注的核心变量。在这场百年一遇的全球金融危机中,美元的表现始终令人担忧。尽管当前世界各国已经进入复苏轨道,美元似乎依旧茫然,贬值之势未见好转。经济周期中,美元汇率的波动总是呈现一定的规律性,那么这一阶段,美元汇率将向何种趋势变化?在此,笔者将从经常账户状况、加息周期和美国历史的启示三个方面对美元进行探讨。 The devaluation trend of the dollar will last until at least March 2010, and the unemployment rate is a core variable that needs to be concerned about when the dollar is devalued. In this once-in-a-century global financial crisis, the performance of the U.S. dollar has always been alarming. Although all countries in the world have entered the recovery track, the U.S. dollar still seems dazed and the trend of devaluation has not improved. In the economic cycle, the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar always shows a certain regularity. So at this stage, what kind of trend will the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar change? Here, I will analyze three aspects of the current account status, the rate hike cycle and the revelation of the U.S. history Discuss the dollar.