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为了解决航空航天产品、造价昂贵的产品及高可靠性产品的可靠性评估,本文在无失效数据情况下,对液体火箭发动机进行了可靠性分析。应用E-Bayes(Expected-Bayesian)估计法,在有关研究的基础上,针对液体火箭发动机热试车过程中可能出现的无失效数据情况,确定了失效概率的先验分布,并给出了E-Bayes估计和多层Bayes(Bayesian)估计。然后用最小二乘法和加权最小二乘法给出寿命分布的参数估计,进而得到了可靠度的点估计和区间估计。最后结合实际问题进行了计算,说明了方法的可行性,且便于工程应用。
In order to solve the reliability evaluation of aerospace products, expensive products and high reliability products, this paper analyzes the reliability of liquid rocket motors without failure data. Based on the relevant research, the E-Bayes (Expected-Bayesian) estimation method is used to determine the prior distribution of failure probability for the possible failure-free data of liquid rocket engine during thermal run-on test. The E- Bayesian estimation and multilayer Bayesian estimation. Then the least squares method and the weighted least squares method are used to give the parameter estimation of the life distribution, then the point estimation and the interval estimation of the reliability are obtained. Finally, the calculation is carried out according to the actual problems, which shows the feasibility of the method and is convenient for engineering application.