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目的以数学模型探索北京市乙型肝炎(乙肝)发病率变化规律,并进行预测。方法以1991─2008年全市乙肝发病率数据为基础,用SPSS 15.0软件拟合11种常见模型,预测2009─2011年发病率。结果三次方程模型(CUB)拟合较佳(据决定系数、F值和P值),2009─2011年乙肝发病率预测值分别为43.27/10万、42.93/10万和41.53/10万。结论北京市2009─2011年乙肝发病率将稳中有降,但控制工作仍不容轻视。
Objective To explore the change rule of hepatitis B (hepatitis B) incidence in Beijing with mathematical model and make prediction. Methods Based on the data of incidence of hepatitis B in the city from 1991 to 2008, 11 common models were fitted by using SPSS 15.0 software to predict the incidence of hepatitis B from 2009 to 2011. Results The cubic equation model (CUB) fitted better (according to the coefficient of determination, F value and P value). The predicted incidence of hepatitis B from 2009 to 2011 were 43.27 / 100000, 42.93 / 100000 and 41.53 / 100000 respectively. Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis B in Beijing from 2009 to 2011 will be steadily decreasing, but control should not be ignored.