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目的探讨宝鸡市手足口病发病与气象因素之间的关系,为预警手足口病疫情提供科学依据。方法收集2009—2011年宝鸡市手足口病发病资料和气象资料,利用Spearman相关分析、主成分分析和曲线拟合方法分析数据。结果手足口病周发病人数(Y)与平均气温(X1)、平均降水量(X2)及平均水汽压(X4)正相关,与平均气压(X3)负相关;对手足口病周发病人数和前述4个气象因素做对数转化后进行主成分分析,获得第1主成分Z1=0.976X1+0.896X2-0.913X3+0.977X4,用Z1与周发病人数进行曲线拟合,方程为lgY=1.136+0.914Z1-0.198Z12-0.210Z13。利用宝鸡市2012年1～30周气象数据回代方程,发病预测值与实际发病人数拟合度较好(rs=0.817,P<0.05)。结论气象因素与手足口病发病关系密切,主成分分析与曲线拟合相结合的分析方法对手足口病发病预测预警有较好的应用价值。
Objective To investigate the relationship between the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and meteorological factors in Baoji and provide a scientific basis for early warning of the epidemic of hand-foot-mouth disease. Methods The incidence data and meteorological data of hand, foot and mouth disease in Baoji were collected from 2009 to 2011. Spearman correlation analysis, principal component analysis and curve fitting method were used to analyze the data. Results The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease (Y) was positively correlated with mean air temperature (X1), mean precipitation (X2) and mean vapor pressure (X4), negatively correlated with mean air pressure The above four meteorological factors were logarithmic transformation after the principal component analysis to obtain the first principal component Z1 = 0.976X1 +0.896X2-0.913X3 +0.977X4, with Z1 week incidence curve fitting, the equation is lgY = 1.136 + 0.914Z1-0.198Z12-0.210Z13. Using the regression equation of meteorological data of 1 ~ 30 weeks in Baoji city in 2012, the predicted value of disease incidence and the actual number of patients fitted well (rs = 0.817, P <0.05). Conclusion The meteorological factors are closely related to the pathogenesis of hand-foot-mouth disease, and the combination of principal component analysis and curve-fitting method has a good value in forecasting hand-foot-mouth disease.