中国城市化的速度在突飞猛进。撤县改市、撤地改市的活动层出不穷。这是值得庆贺的大好事。 与此同时,我们也应该看到,有城市就有城市病。在诸多社会病中,最棘手的要数城市犯罪了。大家都说“民以食为天”,其实,还应当看到在任何时候,民都是以安为地。安全是安身立命之地,安全感是头号心理卫生。尤其是在温饱问题解决之后,民便从“以食为天”转化为“以安为天”。 为了增强人们的安全感,就必须对安全感的对立面——犯罪率有个清醒地估计,准确地预测,以便采取相应对策。这里的“估计”、“预 The pace of urbanization in China is growing by leaps and bounds. To change the county to withdraw from the city, the withdrawal of land-based activities to the city after another. This is a great event worth celebrating. At the same time, we should also see that cities have urban diseases. Among the many social diseases, the trickiest counties have committed crimes. Everyone says that people love the world for food. In fact, we should also see that at any time, people are reassuring themselves. Security is the place to live your life, security is number one mental health. Especially after the issue of adequate food and clothing has been solved, the people have transformed themselves from “food for the day” to “peace for the day.” In order to enhance people’s sense of security, it is necessary to have a clear estimate of the crime rate, the exact opposite of the crime rate, and accurately predict the crime rate in order to take corresponding measures. Here’s “estimation”, "pre-