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以典型东北黑土区乌裕尔河中上游流域为研究区,引入SWIM水文模型,利用偏相关系数评价模型参数的敏感性,基于流域出水口依安水文站1961-1997年实测日径流数据和部分气象站小型蒸发皿数据,进行了多站点、多变量的模型率定和验证,并通过模拟结果与实测资料对比,探讨了SWIM模型在东北黑土区流域的适用性、存在的误差及其原因。结果表明:(1)在率定期和验证期,月径流和日径流的纳希效率系数分别大于0.71和0.55,径流相对误差在6.0%以内,月径流的模拟效果好于对日径流的模拟效果;月潜在蒸散发的纳希效率系数达0.81以上;(2)在月尺度上经过校准的SWIM模型可以应用于东北黑土区与径流相关的各种模拟分析;(3)但模型在模拟融雪和冻土产流方面存在一定的限制;对同时具有春汛和夏汛的年份模拟效果也较差;对年降水量出现骤增的年份年径流量的模拟结果会几倍于实测值,但基本能够重现汛期的流量变化过程。模型不仅可以为管理者对该流域水环境综合管理提供水文基础支持,对黑土区其他流域也具有一定的推广和应用价值。
Taking the middle and upper reaches of the Wuyuer River in the northeastern black earth area as the research area, the SWIM hydrological model was introduced and the sensitivity of model parameters was evaluated by the partial correlation coefficient. Based on the observed daily runoff data from 1961 to 1997 and the partial meteorological data Multi-site and multivariate model calibration and verification are carried out on the data of small-scale evaporating dish. By comparing the simulation results with the measured data, the applicability, existing errors and their causes of the SWIM model in the black soil region of Northeast China are discussed. The results show that: (1) The efficiency of monthly runoff and daily runoff efficiency is greater than 0.71 and 0.55 respectively, and the relative error of runoff is within 6.0%, the simulation effect of monthly runoff is better than that of daily runoff (2) The calibrated SWIM model on the monthly scale can be applied to various simulation analysis related to runoff in the black soil area of northeastern China; (3) However, the model is effective in simulating snowmelt and There are some limitations in permafrost production. Simulations of years with both spring flood season and summer flood season are also poor. Simulations of year annual runoff with an exponential increase in annual precipitation are several times larger than the actual values, Reproduce the flood season traffic changes process. The model can not only provide hydrological support for managers to the integrated management of water environment in the basin, but also promote and apply value to other basins in the black soil area.