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为了探索数学模型在我国麻风病防治研究中的实用价值及其理论意义,我们于1984年2～4月在江苏省宝应县进行了麻风流行病学与社会医学的调查研究,试用负二项概率分布模型对麻风病地理与家庭分布拟合成功,并以经验公式函数模型对该县麻风病流行趋势作了预测,从理论上验证了我国提出在2,000年基本消灭麻风的目标在宝应县是可行的。现将研究结果报告如下。
In order to explore the practical value and theoretical significance of the mathematical model in the research of leprosy prevention and control in our country, we conducted the investigation and study of leprosy epidemiology and social medicine in Baoying County, Jiangsu Province from February to April, 1984, The distribution model has successfully fitted the geographic and family distribution of leprosy and predicted the epidemic trend of leprosy in this county by empirical formula function model. It proves theoretically that it is feasible in our country to put forward the goal of basically eliminating leprosy in 2000 in Baoying County of. The research results are reported below.