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80年代后期以来,国际形势尤为扑朔迷离、变化多端,令人目不暇接。东欧诸国发生剧烈变化,两个德国统一在即,两极称霸向多极发展已成定局,美苏国力的衰退和苏联国内动荡引人注目。这些,意味着在第二次世界大战后即已形成,持续四十多年的雅尔塔体制正告解体,新的多极化的国际关系格局正在发展中逐步明朗。尽管和平与发展仍然是当代的两大主题,这一基本情况没有变,世界大战打不起来,敌人大规模入侵的可能性绝非现实。但是新形势下,一些长期潜伏着的问题,会被重新提出或上升其地位。区域性冲突呈上升趋势。因而,对危及和平引起国际纷争与冲突的征兆,哪怕是危及地区和平的因素进行认真分析和探索,无疑是件有意义的事情。
Since the late 1980s, the international situation has been extremely complicated and confusing. It has witnessed dizzying changes. Drastic changes have taken place in all the countries of Eastern Europe. The imminent reunification of Germany and the hegemony toward multipolarity are a foregone conclusion. The recession of the United States and the Soviet Union and the domestic turmoil in the Soviet Union are attracting attention. All this means that the Yalta system, which has been formed after the Second World War and lasted for more than 40 years, has just been brought to an end and the new multipolarized pattern of international relations is gradually evolving. Although peace and development are still the two major themes of our time, the basic situation has not changed. World war can not be hit and the possibility of a massive invasion of the enemy is by no means realistic. However, under the new situation, some long-term potential problems will be raised or raised again. Regional conflicts are on the rise. Therefore, it is undoubtedly a meaningful thing to conduct serious analysis and exploration on the signs of endangering the international disputes and conflicts that peace poses, even if it is a threat to regional peace.