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基于浙江省1986～2006年GDP和进出口的相关数据对浙江外贸和经济运行的轨迹进行分析,测算外贸依存度、贡献率、拉动度及弹性四个对外贸易指标对经济增长的影响。运用协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对浙江省对外贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:存在出口到经济增长的单向格兰杰因果关系。同时建立误差修正模型(ECM)得到了较好的拟合结果,为出口贸易促进经济增长假说(ELG)提供了新证据。
Based on the data of Zhejiang Province from 1986 to 2006, the paper analyzes the track of Zhejiang’s foreign trade and economic operation, and estimates the influence of the four foreign trade indicators on the economic growth, including the dependence on foreign trade, the contribution rate, the pulling degree and flexibility. Using cointegration theory and Granger causality test to test the relationship between Zhejiang’s foreign trade and economic growth, the results show that there is one-way Granger causality between export and economic growth. At the same time, the error correction model (ECM) has been well fitted and provides new evidence for the Export Promotion Economy Growth Hypothesis (ELG).