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本文以1950—2009年的年度数据为样本,运用基于VAR模型的广义脉冲响应函数法与方差分解法进行实证分析。结果表明,果蔬零售价格指数的上涨对生产价格指数的传导路径顺畅,但生产价格指数对零售价格指数的传导存在1期滞后,且产地的农产品市场价格对销地市场的零售价格传递效应随着时间的推移传递效应越来越大,效果却微乎其微;而销地市场零售价格对产地市场生产价格的影响逐渐减少,影响较为显著。价格传导率研究表明,近期上游生产者价格对下游消费者价格呈现扩张性传导的态势。
In this paper, the annual data from 1950 to 2009 as a sample, the use of VAR model based on generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition method for empirical analysis. The results show that the rise of the retail price index of fruits and vegetables leads to a smooth conduction of the production price index. However, there is a lag in the transmission of the retail price index by the production price index, and the retail price transfer effect of the market prices of the agricultural products originating from the origin to the market The effect of passing time is getting bigger and bigger, but the effect is negligible; while the influence of the retail sales price of the sales market on the production prices in the production markets gradually decreases, the impact is more significant. Price conductivity studies show that the recent price of upstream producers showed downward expansion of consumer prices trend.