论文部分内容阅读
针对发射场概率风险评估中非标设备失效概率难以获取的问题,提出了建立非标设备失效故障树;用Delphi法确定基本事件中部件初始失效概率;用短期运行数据结合Bayes方法对部件初始失效概率加以修正,由故障树解算获取非标设备失效概率,即Delphi-Bayes法。以某厂房桥式起重机总电源不能切断故障为例,应用Delphi-Bayes法确定了故障树基本事件中部件失效概率,获取了起重机总电源不能切断的失效概率;以疲劳加速试验数据为标准,计算了所获取部件及设备失效概率的偏差,其偏差在可接受范围内。经验证,Delphi-Bayes法切实可行,所得非标设备失效概率能够满足发射场定量概率风险评估的要求。
Aiming at the problem that the probability of failure of non-standard equipment in the assessment of the probability of launching field is difficult to obtain, a fault tree of failure of non-standard equipment is established. The initial probability of failure of components in basic event is determined by Delphi method. Probability to be amended by the fault tree solution to obtain non-standard equipment failure probability, that is, Delphi-Bayes method. Taking the failure of the total power supply of overhead crane for a factory to be cut off as an example, the probability of failure of components in the basic fault tree is determined by Delphi-Bayes method and the failure probability of the total power supply of the crane can not be cut off. Based on fatigue accelerated test data, Deviations from the probability of failure of the acquired components and equipment were within acceptable limits. It is verified that the Delphi-Bayes method is feasible and the probability of failure of the obtained non-standard equipment can meet the requirements of quantitative probability risk assessment of launch site.