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本文运用协整检验和误差修正模型,对人民币实际有效汇率波动对天津进口贸易的影响进行了实证研究。结果表明,人民币汇率变动和进口贸易之间不存在长期均衡关系,人民币汇率波动对天津的进口贸易的影响较弱,而国际相对价格变动和天津出口贸易增长对天津的进口贸易存在显著影响。
This paper uses the cointegration test and error correction model to empirically study the impact of RMB real effective exchange rate fluctuations on Tianjin’s import trade. The results show that there is no long-term equilibrium relationship between RMB exchange rate changes and import trade. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has a weak impact on Tianjin’s import trade. International relative price changes and Tianjin’s export trade growth have a significant impact on Tianjin’s import trade.