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从森林火灾成灾的三个基本因子 (火源、环境和可燃物 )入手 ,在宏观上对西南地区森林火灾预报方法进行了探讨.在预测林火发生方面 ,考虑到人为火是发生森林火灾的主要原因 ,有很大随机性 ,因而采用了马尔科夫随机过程理论.在分析成灾环境时 ,采用了与天、地、生相关分析的方法.特别在可燃物的贮量估测方面 ,用航天遥感数据 ,提出一套新的框算方法 ,为在区域的尺度上估测森林火灾给出了有效的、定量的方法 ,从而提高了可信度.“,”This thesis took the three essential factors of forest fire(fire source,environment,and litter) as the point of departure,and has approached the forecast method of forest fire in tropical area of southwest China in a macroscopic scale. This study supported by mathematical method was from a new angle.For example,in the aspect of forest fire forecast,the main cause of forest fire was artificial fire,which had lots of randomness.So Markov random processes could be employed in the study.In the aspect of the analysis of environment that contributes to forest fire,correlation analysis would reveal the relation among cosmos、earth and life,for instance,the relation between the E1 Nino (or La Nina) and the forest fire.Especially in the aspect of estimating the amount of litter,a new estimate method based on space remote sensing data was raised.It provided an effective and quantitative way with higher reliability for forest fire forecast on region scale. [