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针对我国刺激消费的迫切需求,本文探讨了我国股票市场对促进消费的作用。通过标准化时间序列数据,建立VAR模型研究脉冲响应图,发现自2000年至2008年我国股票市场存在一定但较微弱的财富效应,整个数据区间的财富的边际消费倾向为0.1左右。但是财富效应的不对称性问题严重,稳定上升时期的财富正效应远远小于股市萎靡的负向效应。由此本文提出应该大力规范完善稳定股票市场,并且应该在熊市期间推出更多的刺激消费计划,平抑股市的负效应。
In response to the urgent needs of stimulating consumption in our country, this paper explores the role of China’s stock market in promoting consumption. By standardizing the time series data and establishing the VAR model to study the impulse response graph, it is found that there is a certain but weaker wealth effect in China’s stock market from 2000 to 2008, and the marginal propensity to consume of the entire data range is about 0.1. However, the asymmetry of the wealth effect is a serious problem. The positive wealth effect during the period of steady rise is far less than the negative effect of the sluggish stock market. Therefore, this paper proposes that we should vigorously standardize and perfect the stable stock market, and should launch more stimulating consumption plans during the bear market to stabilize the negative effect of the stock market.