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港口吞吐量号称“国民经济发展的晴雨表”。本文借助回归模型,用福建省GDP数据预测2020年全省沿海港口货物吞吐量,模型具有较好的拟合度。研究发现,“十三五”期,在全球经济下行、全球航运业不景气等多重压力之下,福建全省沿海港口货物吞吐量的增长势头受到一定的影响,但仍将有望保持平稳增长势头,预计到2020年可达到6.96亿吨,将有力支撑福建经济社会发展。
Port throughput known as “barometer of national economic development ”. In this paper, regression model is used to predict the cargo throughput of the coastal ports in Fujian province by using the GDP data of Fujian Province. The model has a good fitting degree. The study found that under the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, due to the global economic downturn and the sluggish global shipping industry, the growth of cargo throughput in the coastal ports of Fujian Province has been affected to some extent. However, it is still expected to remain stable The growth momentum is expected to reach 696 million tons by 2020, which will strongly support Fujian’s economic and social development.