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在日前举行的中国宏观经济高层论坛上,厦门大学和新加坡国立大学课题组发布2010年春季预测报告称,今后数年,中国的经济可能难以保持2003～2007年的两位数增长。该课题组运用中国季度宏观经济模型(CQMM)进行预测。预测显示,2010年中国GDP预计可实现9.13%的经济增速,经济复苏迹象明显。但随着M2增速的下降,2011年增长率将回落到8.51%。
At a recent high-level macroeconomic forum held in China, the task force of Xiamen University and the National University of Singapore released the 2010 spring forecast report saying that in the next few years, China’s economy may find it difficult to maintain its double-digit growth in 2003-2007. The research team used China’s quarterly macroeconomic model (CQMM) for forecasting. Forecast shows that in 2010 China’s GDP is expected to achieve 9.13% of the economic growth, signs of economic recovery obvious. However, with the growth of M2 slowing down, the growth rate will drop to 8.51% in 2011.