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利用1880—2009年HadISST资料,去掉百年全球变暖的信号,研究发现东太平洋、北太平洋和北大西洋都有较强的年际和年代际振荡信号,特别是赤道东太平洋南侧的年代际振荡是不容忽视的。对全球范围的海表温度资料做EOF分析发现,存在3种主要的全球尺度信号,第一模态为太平洋型、第二模态为北大西洋型以及第三模态为赤道中太平洋型。特别指出,第三模态是CP ENSO在全球模态中的表现。这3种模态在年际和年代际尺度都有显著的信号,在无滤波的情况下,3种模态方差贡献之和为34%。在年代际以上时间尺度范围,3种模态方差贡献之和为61%。在各种时间尺度中,这3种信号与全球平均温度都有一定的联系,尤其第一、二模态的影响最为重要,在年代际尺度中,第一、二模态方差贡献之和达到50%。2005年以后全球并没有明显增温,可能与前2个模态同时下降有关。
Using the HadISST data of 1880-2009, the signal of a hundred years of global warming was removed and the study found that there is strong interannual and decadal oscillation signals in the eastern Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic, especially the decadal oscillations on the southern equatorial eastern Pacific Can not be ignored. EOF analysis of global sea surface temperature data reveals that there are three major global-scale signals, the first mode being the Pacific Ocean, the second mode being the North Atlantic and the third mode being the Equatorial Pacific. In particular, the third mode is the representation of CP ENSO in the global mode. The three modes all have significant signals on interannual and decadal scales, and the sum of the contributions of the three modalities is 34% in the absence of filtering. Over the interdecadal time scale, the sum of the contributions of the three modalities is 61%. In all time scales, these three kinds of signals are related to the global average temperature, especially the influence of the first and second modes is the most important. In the decadal scale, the sum of the first and second modal variance contributions reaches 50%. After 2005, there is no obvious global warming, which may be related to the simultaneous decline of the first two modes.