为什么有的国家在技术创新方面总能做得比其他国家好?政治经济学家给出的主流解释是国内的制度决定了国家创新速度。然而,学界数十年的实证研究得出的结果都模棱两可。有很多国家拥有很好的制度,但在技术前沿的创新成果却差强人意;而有的国家制度差强人意,却在技术进步史上留下了深刻的印迹。因此,为了找出国家创新速度不同的真正原因,本文对各种国家制度、四种类型的国际关系(internationalrelationship,IR)及创新数据进行了定量分析。首先,概览了国家创新系统相关文献;其次,评述了各种创新资本理论;最后,检验了分布式技术创新是否比集中式技术创新好。这三部分中都很少有实证证据证明国家制度和技术创新之间存在聚合关系(aggregaterelationship)。也就是说,尽管某一个具体的国家制度或政策看起来与某项特殊的创新存在一定的相关关系,但是,它们不能解释长时间内的国家创新速度。但实证研究证明,一个国家的国际关系可能就是国家创新速度构成中缺失的那一个因素。而且,本文的研究证明了某些特定的国际关系(如进口资本货物、外商直接投资、交换留学生)确实会对国家创新速度产生一定影响。不管国家制度如何,与优秀的创新型国家有这些国际关系的比没有这些关系的国家更倾向于创新。换句话说,国家创新速度应该更多地从国际关系角度解释而不仅仅是从国内制度角度解释。本文的实证数据包括简单的专利数据,以未来引用数为权重的加权专利数据,科学与工程方面的出版数量(简单数据和引用加权数据)及高技术出口数。 Why do some countries always do better than other countries in technological innovation? The main explanation given by political economists is that the domestic system determines the speed of national innovation. However, empirical studies from the academic community for decades have resulted in ambiguous results. Many countries have very good systems, but their innovations at the technological front are far from satisfactory. However, some countries have unsatisfactory systems but have left a deep imprint in the history of technological progress. Therefore, in order to find out the real reasons for the different rates of national innovation, this paper quantitatively analyzes various national systems, four types of international relations (IRs) and innovative data. First, an overview of the relevant literature on national innovation systems is given. Second, various theories of innovation capital are reviewed. Finally, it is tested whether distributed technological innovations are better than centralized technological innovations. Few of these three parts have empirical evidence of the aggregate relationship between state institutions and technological innovation. In other words, although a particular national system or policy seems to have some correlation with a particular innovation, they can not explain the speed of national innovation over a long period of time. However, empirical research proves that the international relations of a country may be the missing factor in the composition of national innovation speed. Moreover, the study in this paper shows that certain specific international relations (such as import of capital goods, foreign direct investment and exchange of international students) do have an impact on the rate of national innovation. Regardless of the national system, countries that have these international relations with good, innovative countries are more likely to innovate than those without. In other words, the rate of national innovation should be more explained from the perspective of international relations than from the perspective of domestic institutions. The empirical data in this paper includes simple patent data, weighted patent data weighted by future reference numbers, published quantities (simple data and citation weighted data) and high-tech exports in science and engineering.