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本文通过逻辑回归和线性回归模型,结合我国深沪两市的上市公司数据,对影响公司市场表现的因素进行了分析。在文中考虑的众多财务和股权指标中,国家股比例显著地影响了公司2003年被“ST”的可能性大小。同时,国家股比例对每股收益和市倍率这些对投资者预期产生重要影响的指标没有显著作用。本文有助于投资者理性的评估国家股在上市公司市场表现中的影响,避免盲目卷入国家股减持题材的股市炒作。
This article analyzes the factors that affect the performance of the company’s market through the logistic regression and the linear regression model, combined with the data of listed companies in Shenzhen and Shanghai. Of the many financial and equity indicators considered in the paper, the country share ratio significantly affected the company’s 2003 “ST” size. At the same time, the proportion of state shares has no significant effect on the indicators of earnings and market magnification, which have a significant impact on investors’ expectations. This article helps investors to rationally evaluate the impact of state shares in the performance of listed companies in the market, and avoid the speculation in the stock market blindly involved in the theme of state share reduction.