四年多以前,石油输出国组织曾对石油价格以及它在与第三世界和工业化国家的关系等重大问题上应该采取什么样的长期政策和可能会出现些什么情况,进行了研究和分析。当时,世界经济和能源形势看起来是“一片大好”,后来证明这种看法是错误的。当时,普遍为人们接受的看法是:世界对石油输出国组织需求的增长速度,将比世界能源供应能力的增长速度,特别是石油输出国组织石油供应能力的增长速度,要快得多。因此,在八十年代早期的某个时候,世界将爆发一次石油供应短缺危机。在这种看法的影 More than four years ago, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries conducted its own research and analysis on what long-term policies should be taken and what might happen on the major issues of oil prices and their relations with the third world and industrialized countries. At the time, the world economic and energy situation seemed “very good” and later proved that this view was wrong. At the time, it was generally accepted that the world’s demand for OPEC growth would be much faster than the growth rate of the world’s energy supply capacity, especially the OPEC oil supply capacity. Therefore, some time in the early 1980s, there will be a crisis of oil supply shortage in the world. In the shadow of this view