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影响农业病虫害发生发展的各种因素复杂而多变，对它们需要采取动态的分析。在长期研究农业病虫测报技术的基础上，本文采用了灰色关联动态分析方法，对一代玉米螟发生量与越冬基数之间的关系进行分析，指出了后者对前者在远期、中期和近期的影响，为玉米螟发生程度预测因素的入选提供了依据。
Various factors that affect the development of agricultural pests and diseases are complex and changeable, and they need to be analyzed dynamically. On the basis of long-term research on agricultural pest forecasting technology, this paper uses the gray correlation dynamic analysis method to analyze the relationship between the generation of the first generation corn borer and the base of overwintering, and points out that the latter has obvious influence on the former in the long-term, medium- The results provided the basis for the selection of the predictors of the occurrence of corn borer.