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就在人们担心放松银根将引发通胀之际,通缩风险却已降临。三大发达经济体之中,美国和欧洲正在走向通缩,日本更是已经陷入了通缩。初级产品价格和初级产品出口国的货币都有所下跌。金融危机具有通缩效应的原因在于,危机会导致现金需求上升、银行中介功能瘫痪,从而降低货币乘数,令基础货币的增长无法推动货币供应量的增长,这会在产能严重过剩之际抑制总需求。通缩是危机的延伸,它会增大实际债务负担,并损害利润率。持有巨额债务的全球银行业将面临资产负债表的严重恶化。
Just as people worry that easing money will trigger inflation, deflation risks have come. Among the three developed economies, the United States and Europe are heading toward deflation, and Japan is already in deflation. The prices of primary products and those of exporting countries of primary products both declined. The deflationary effect of the financial crisis is that the crisis will lead to an increase in cash demand and the collapse of bank intermediation functions, thereby reducing the monetary multiplier and preventing the growth of the monetary base from boosting the money supply. This will suppress the total excess capacity demand. Deflation is an extension of the crisis, which increases the real debt burden and undermines profitability. Global banks that hold huge debts will face a serious deterioration in their balance sheets.