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传统的观点认为较低的通货膨胀是保持经济的平稳、较快增长的重要条件,各国央行都以通货膨胀目标制作为货币政策依据。本文基于美国金融危机的研究发现:全球化促进了国际贸易的大发展,发展中国家大量低价产品出口给发达国家带来通缩效应,低通胀会“迷惑”货币政策制定者,使其在用宽松的货币政策刺激本国经济时不用担心通货膨胀的威胁,以至于吹起资产价格泡沫。与此同时,贸易盈余国将巨额美元储备用以购买美国国债又拉低了长期利率,更推高了资产价格,泡沫的破灭危及金融稳定与整体经济。
The traditional view is that lower inflation is an important condition for maintaining a steady and rapid economic growth. Central banks in all countries use monetary inflation as a basis for monetary policy. Based on the study of the U.S. financial crisis, this study finds that globalization has promoted the great development of international trade. The export of a large amount of low-cost products from developing countries has brought deflation effects to developed countries and low inflation will “confuse” monetary policy makers to make them Do not worry about the threat of inflation when stimulating its own economy with loose monetary policy, blowing a bubble in asset prices. At the same time, trade surplus countries used huge amounts of US dollar reserves to purchase U.S. treasuries, dragged down long-term interest rates and pushed up asset prices. The collapse of the bubble jeopardized financial stability and the overall economy.