论文部分内容阅读
为了探究全球气候变暖造成的高温热害导致水稻产量结构变化的规律及其影响程度,以江苏省为例,利用通径分析的方法,分析了夏粮产量与表征热害的3个指标,即最高温度、平均温度和相对湿度等因子的关系,及其对夏粮产量的直接和间接影响。并且通过相关普查方法和滑动相关检验法进行稳定性检验,确定大气环流特征量与水稻高温热害指标间的显著性关系,以分析高温热害发生的环流原因。结果表明:日最高温度≥35℃的日数对水稻穗粒数的影响最为直接,且影响程度最大,日平均温度≥30℃日数主要是间接作用。而对水稻千粒重来说,日相对湿度≤70%的日数影响最为直接,且影响程度最大,日最高温度≥35℃日数主要起间接作用。可通过对前一年11-12月南海副高强度指数的平均值和当年2-3月北美副高面积指数平均值的预报,来提前预测7月下旬至9月上旬≥35℃的高温日数。
In order to explore the law of the change of rice yield structure caused by high temperature and heat damage caused by global warming and the degree of its impact, taking Jiangsu Province as an example, the author used the method of path analysis to analyze three indicators of summer grain yield and characterizing heat damage The relationship between maximum temperature, average temperature and relative humidity and other factors and their direct and indirect effects on summer grain output. And the correlation between atmospheric circulation characteristics and rice high-temperature thermal damage index was determined by the related census method and sliding correlation test to test the circulation reason of the high-temperature thermal damage. The results showed that the daily maximum temperature of ≥35 ℃ had the most direct impact on the number of grains per spike of rice and had the greatest influence. The daily average temperature ≥30 ℃ was mainly indirect. For 1000-grain weight, the days with relative humidity less than 70% had the most direct impact with the greatest impact, and the daily maximum temperature ≥35 ℃ mainly played an indirect role. By forecasting the average of the South China Sea subtropical high strength index from November to December of the previous year and the average value of the North American subtropical high area index from February to March of the previous year, the days of high temperature ≥35 ℃ in the period from the end of July to the beginning of September are predicted in advance .