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黑龙江省小麦赤霉病的流行规律与予测方法尚未见报道。我们在1959—1982年通过系统研究,发现黑龙江省小麦赤霉病菌以子囊壳和菌丝体越冬,在小麦扬花期侵染率最高,侵染率与小麦扬花期相对湿度的相关值r=0.893。该省小麦赤霉病流行与越冬菌源间的相关性不大。在大面积栽种感病品种的条件下,当年赤霉病流行强度直接受小麦抽穗扬花期的相对湿度,雨量、雨日和日照时数的影响。对有关因子进行相关性测定,得出黑龙江省小麦赤霉病流行强度的中长期予测四元回归方程:早熟品种y=-26.61+0.28x_1+0.15x_2-0.2x_3+0.003x_4;中晚熟品种y=-27.27+0.12x_1+0.31x_2+1.122x_3+0.03x_4。并根据赤霉病流行与小麦抽穗期旬平均相对湿度、雨量和雨日的相关性,采用气象点聚图,提出小麦赤霉病点聚图短期予测法,制定出单因子短期予测方程y=1.1x-82.9。
The prevalence and prediction methods of wheat scab in Heilongjiang Province have not been reported yet. We systematically studied in 1959-1982 and found that Heilongjiang Province had overwintering with the capsid and mycelium of Fusarium graminearum in Heilongjiang Province. The infection rate was the highest at the flowering stage of wheat and the correlation value was 0.893 . There was not much correlation between the prevalence of wheat scab in the province and the source of overwintering. Under the conditions of planting susceptible cultivars in large area, the prevalence of scab in the current year was directly affected by the relative humidity at heading and flowering, rainfall, rainy days and sunshine duration. The related factors were determined and the mid-long term quadratic regression equation of the prevailing intensity of wheat scab in Heilongjiang Province was obtained: the precocious varieties y = -26.61 + 0.28x_1 + 0.15x_2-0.2x_3 + 0.003x_4; y = -27.27 + 0.12x_1 + 0.31x_2 + 1.122x_3 + 0.03x_4. According to the correlation between the epidemic of scab and the average relative humidity, rainfall and rainy days at the heading stage of wheat, the short-term forecasting method was proposed based on the spot map of wheat and the single-factor short-term prediction equation y = 1.1x-82.9.