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挠力河作为三江平原一条典型的沼泽性河流,其径流过程的演变受到气候因素和人类活动的双重影响。利用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法和小波分析法对挠力河2个水文站(宝清站、菜嘴子站)1956年～2005年50年来年均径流量的总体变化趋势和周期性进行了研究,结果发现:两个水文站年均径流量减少趋势都非常明显,其中宝清站的夏汛期和菜嘴子站的春汛期减少趋势更明显;宝清站年平均径流量的演变存在着15a和45a的年际周期变化,菜嘴子站的年径流演变存在25a和40a的年际周期变化;目前挠力河流域正处于30a和40a以上尺度的枯水期。气候变化和人类活动是影响径流演变的主要因素,气候变化主要体现在降水的减少和温度的升高,而人类活动的影响主要体现在对流域大面积沼泽湿地的垦殖和水利工程的修建。
As a typical swamp river in the Sanjiang Plain, the Naoli River has been affected by both climatic factors and human activities. Using Mann-Kendall trend test and wavelet analysis, the author studied the annual average runoff variation and periodicity of two hydrological stations (Baoqing Station and Caiwangzi Station) of Naoli River from 1956 to 2005, The results show that the decreasing trend of average annual runoff of the two hydrological stations is very obvious. The decreasing trend of summer flood season in Baoqing Station and Caiquizi Station is more obvious. The annual average runoff evolution in Baoqing Station has 15a and 45a The interannual variation of annual runoff in 25 years and 40 years in CaiZuZi Station shows the interannual variation of annual runoff. At present, the Naoli River Basin is in the dry season of 30 years and over. Climate change and human activities are the main factors affecting the evolution of runoff. Climate change is mainly reflected in the decrease of precipitation and temperature. The impact of human activities is mainly reflected in reclamation and water conservancy construction of large-scale marsh wetlands in the basin.