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2007～2009年世界性金融危机中,世界各大国纷纷采用财政政策应对金融危机带来的负面影响,也使得政府支出的宏观经济效应再次引起关注。鉴于此,本文使用我国相关数据,利用VAR方法得到我国政府支出宏观经济效应的经验性事实:(1)政府生产性支出对于产出具有正效应,但对于通胀具有负效应;(2)政府消费性支出对于产出和通胀均具有正效应;(3)政府支出的冲击效应具有部门依存性特征。在此基础上,本文进一步构建了一个包含政府支出不同构成成分以及不同部门的多部门NK-DSGE模型,并基于这一模型对我国政府支出的整体效应与部门效应进行了考察。贝叶斯脉冲响应函数表明政府生产性支出的冲击效应大于消费性支出冲击,并且二者对于制造业部门与服务部门具有不同的冲击效应;而贝叶斯冲击分解的结果表明,相对于消费性支出冲击,政府生产性支出冲击对于整体经济以及部门经济波动均具有更强的解释能力。因此,在使用支出政策稳定宏观经济时,政府需要依据政策目标调整政府支出的构成。
During the world financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the major countries in the world adopted fiscal policies to cope with the negative impact brought about by the financial crisis, and made the macroeconomic effects of government expenditure again cause concern. In view of this, this article uses the empirical data of China’s relevant data and VAR method to get the macroeconomic effect of government expenditure in our country. (1) Government productive expenditure has positive effect on output but negative effect on inflation; (2) Government consumption Sexual expenditures have a positive effect on output and inflation; (3) The impact of government spending has the characteristics of departmental dependency. On this basis, this article further builds a multi-sector NK-DSGE model that includes different components of government expenditure and different departments, and examines the overall effect and sectoral effect of our government expenditure based on this model. Bayesian impulse response function shows that the impact of government productive expenditures is greater than that of consumer expenditures, and both have different impact effects on manufacturing sector and service sector. The Bayesian impact decomposition shows that, compared with consumer Expenditure impact, the impact of government productive expenditure on the overall economy and sectoral economic fluctuations have a stronger ability to explain. Therefore, when using the spending policy to stabilize the macroeconomy, the government needs to adjust the composition of government spending according to the policy objectives.