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2016年8月份,我国宏观经济延续了此前初现的企稳迹象,但基础并不牢固。宏观经济风险依然处于累积阶段。具体表现为:在宏观经济整体企稳的同时,实体经济面临不确定性,民间投资增速下滑,货币存量活期化现象加剧;流动性供给存在“脱实向虚”风险;板块和地区经济下滑风险依然存在,地方财政面临较大考验;汇率波动和大宗商品价格不确定性依然存在等。针对宏观经济企稳的现状和整体风险累积的情况,应对货币政策、投资政策和财政政策等进行必要的调整。
In August 2016, China’s macro economy continued the signs of stabilization that had just appeared before, but the foundation was not solid. Macroeconomic risks are still in the accumulation phase. The concrete manifestation is as follows: While the macroeconomy as a whole is stabilizing, the real economy is facing uncertainty, the growth rate of private investment is declining, and the stock of cash is exacerbated. The liquidity supply is at risk of “taking off from real estate to real” The downside risk persists, with the local finance facing a bigger test; exchange rate volatility and commodity price uncertainty still exist. In response to the macroeconomic stabilization and the overall risk accumulation situation, necessary adjustments should be made to monetary policy, investment policy and fiscal policy.