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通过采用1978～2009年上海的经济和产业发展时间序列资料,用HP滤波法分析了服务业发展对上海地方经济波动的影响。实证结果表明,在三次产业构成的上海国民经济总量中,服务业波动性最小但其相对波动性仍大于上海国民经济的增长波动。即虽然服务业相对于农业、工业对上海国民经济的稳定贡献大,但当前大力发展上海服务业仍是不利于地方经济稳定的。
By using the time-series data of economic and industrial development in Shanghai from 1978 to 2009, the influence of service development on the local economic fluctuations in Shanghai was analyzed by HP filter. The empirical results show that among the three nationalities in Shanghai, the fluctuation of service industry is the smallest but its relative volatility is still larger than the growth of Shanghai’s national economy. In other words, although the service industry relative to agriculture and industry contributed greatly to the stability of Shanghai’s national economy, the current development of Shanghai’s service industry is still not conducive to local economic stability.