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我国的原油定价机制尚缺乏研究。回归检验了Minas原油至我国大庆原油的价格传导关系,讨论了大庆原油价格的形成特点,并归纳出国内外油价波动传导路径。尽管原油价格之间具有长期一致性,但背离指标揭示了Minas原油价格具有异常波动频繁而剧烈的短期特征,这种蕴含风险的价格变化同样反映在大庆原油的价格上。进而分析了油价波动对经济运行的不利影响,提出了改进我国原油定价机制的建议。
China’s crude oil pricing mechanism is still lacking in research. Regression tests the price of Minas crude oil to Daqing crude oil conduction relationship between China discussed the characteristics of the formation of Daqing crude oil prices and induces fluctuations in oil prices at home and abroad transmission path. Despite the long-term consistency between the crude oil prices, the divergence indicator reveals the short-lived and violent short-term signatures of the unusually volatile fluctuations of Minas crude oil prices, which are also reflected in the price of Daqing crude oil. Then it analyzes the unfavorable influence of oil price fluctuation on economic operation and puts forward some suggestions to improve the pricing mechanism of crude oil in China.