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针对大用户直购电给供电公司带来的风险进行研究。分析了供电公司实行大用户直购电前后的供电成本和供电收益的变化;并采用邮票法对转运电费用进行分摊,得出大用户直购电的单位供电成本;根据未来转运费的预测区间构建供电公司的风险度量模型,并结合风险度量结果给出供电公司一些有效规避策略。算例表明,该模型是可行的,可为供电公司的风险管理提供一定的参考。
Research on the risks brought by the direct purchase of electricity to power supply companies by big users. The paper analyzes the changes of the power supply cost and the power supply revenue before and after the direct power purchase and sale by the large power users, and shares the unit cost of the direct power purchase by the stamp method according to the stamp law. According to the forecast interval of the future transshipment fee, The risk measurement model of power supply company is constructed, and some effective circumvention strategies of power supply company are given according to the risk measurement results. The example shows that the model is feasible and can provide a reference for the risk management of power supply companies.