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鉴于近期房地产市场萎靡不振,考虑到楼市发展的显著区域性差异,部分面临房地产市场下行压力的城市可能会放松调控力度中国今年一季度GDP同比增速为7.4%(摩根大通:7.5%;普遍预测:7.3%),较去年四季度的7.7%有所回落。根据摩根大通的计算,今年一季度经季节性因素调整后的实际GDP环比增速放缓至5.9%,远低于去年四季度的7.6%。(与之相比,官方发布的数据显示,今年一季度经季节性因素调整后的季度环比增速(未经年化)为1.4%,去年四季度为1.7%)。一季度经济数据表明实体经济增长进一步放缓,反映了2013年下半年以来信贷宽松退出的影响、部分行业面临产能过剩痼疾带来的影响、中央持续反腐对公共支持和公共投资造成的近期影响以及污染防控引发的近期影响。
Given the recent downturn in the real estate market, given the significant regional differences in the development of the property market, some cities facing downward pressure on the real estate market may ease their regulation and control. China’s GDP grew 7.4% YoY in the first quarter of this year (JPMorgan: 7.5%; general forecast : 7.3%), down from 7.7% in the fourth quarter of last year. According to JP Morgan calculations, the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth slowed to 5.9% in the first quarter of this year, much lower than the 7.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. (In contrast, official data show that the seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter quarter-to-quarter growth (un-annualized) was 1.4% in the first quarter of this year and 1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year). The first quarter economic data shows that the real economy has further slowed down. This reflects the impact of the gradual withdrawal of credit from the second half of 2013, the impact of overcapacity in some industries, the recent public support and public investment by the central government, and The immediate impact of pollution prevention and control.