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本文对2006年7月4日河北文安5.1级地震钻孔应力-应变观测资料的异常和中期预测情况作了初步分析。认为震前首都圈东部及渤海沿岸地区部分钻孔应变资料在长、中、短、临各阶段均有不同程度的异常显示,其中4个台(宽城、宝坻、顺义、安丘)有长趋势异常;4个台(宽城、顺义、昌平、安丘)有中短期异常;2个台(昌平、代县)有短临异常。在2006年下半年中国大陆地震趋势预测报告中对这次地震作了一定程度的预测。
This paper made a preliminary analysis of the anomalous and medium-term prediction of borehole stress-strain observations on July 4, 2006 in Wen’an, Hebei Province. It is considered that some borehole strain data in the eastern part of the capital area and some areas along the coast of the Bohai Sea before the earthquake show different degrees of anomalies in different stages, including 4 stations (Kuancheng, Baodi, Shunyi and Anqiu) There were short-term anomalies in the four stations (Kuancheng, Shunyi, Changping and Anqiu) and short-term anomalies in the two stations (Changping and Daixian). The earthquake was predicted to a certain extent in the prediction report of the earthquake in Mainland China in the second half of 2006.