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2006年人民币兑美元升值了3%,而英镑兑美元一度升至达到15%,人民币目前活期利率0．72%而澳元基准利率6．25%。此外在国家“藏汇于民”的政策鼓励下,个人外汇期权、个人外汇远期交易等一系列金融衍生工具纷纷在2006年粉墨登场,给投资者提供了更为多样的投资工具。若居民投资思路正确,则很可能在2007年获得不俗收益。本文将从影响汇率走势的关键经济因素着手,对2007年主要货币的走势做出预测,希望对居民投资外汇市场有所帮助。
In 2006, the renminbi appreciated 3% against the U.S. dollar, while the pound rose to 15% against the dollar once. The current interest rate of the renminbi was 0.72% and the Australian dollar benchmark interest rate was 6.25%. In addition, a series of financial derivatives, such as individual foreign exchange options and long-term personal foreign exchange exchanges, were encouraged by the policy of “collecting foreign exchange and benefiting the people” in the country in 2006 and provided investors with more diversified investment vehicles. If residents invest in the right ideas, it is likely to get a decent return in 2007. This article will start from the key economic factors that affect the trend of exchange rate and make forecast on the movements of major currencies in 2007 in the hope of helping residents invest in the foreign exchange market.