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本文在理论分析能源消费与对外贸易关系的基础上,通过面板单位根检验、协整检验、FMOLS与DOLS估计法、VECM等方法,实证分析了能源消费与出口贸易、能源消费与进口贸易之间的关系。研究发现:长期内,出口贸易和进口贸易的发展均显著地促进了能源消费的需求;短期内,能源消费与出口贸易存在显著的双向格兰杰因果关系,但能源消费与进口贸易间不存在短期格兰杰因果关系;同时,东、中、西部三大地区能源消费与进、出口贸易间的关系也存在差异。因此,对各地区简单实行减少能源消费类措施将对出口贸易或进口贸易产生一定的负面影响,而更应注重能源利用效率,通过改进技术、提高能源传输效率、减少不必要的能源浪费、优化出口结构、积极发展可再生能源等多种方式,从而实现综合的“节能+提高能源利用效率”目标,促进低碳环保与经济贸易的协调发展。
Based on the theoretical analysis of the relationship between energy consumption and foreign trade, this paper empirically analyzes the relationship between energy consumption and export trade, energy consumption and import trade through panel unit root test, cointegration test, FMOLS and DOLS estimation, VECM and other methods Relationship. The results show that in the long run, both the export trade and the import trade have significantly promoted the demand for energy consumption. In the short term, there is a significant two-way Granger causality between energy consumption and export trade, but there is no relation between energy consumption and import trade Short-term Granger causality; the same time, the eastern, central and western regions of the three major energy consumption and import and export trade relations between the different. Therefore, the simple implementation of measures to reduce energy consumption in various regions will have a negative impact on export trade or import trade, but more on energy efficiency, and should be optimized by improving technology, improving energy transmission efficiency and reducing unnecessary energy waste Export structure and actively develop renewable energy and other means so as to achieve the goal of comprehensive energy saving and energy efficiency and promote the coordinated development of low-carbon environmental protection and economic and trade.