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应用灰色预测理论提出了岩石斜皮剪切带厚度与最大戊变量相关的经验公式和基于最大蠕变量的预测滑坡滑动时刻这一事关防灾效果的系统方法。经意大利瓦依昂水库滑坡观测资料验证，表明本文提出的系统预报方法大幅度地提高了滑动时间预报的精度
Based on the gray prediction theory, an empirical formula about the correlation between the thickness of the shear zone in the rock and the maximum variable and the systematic method of predicting the sliding time of the landslide based on the maximum creep amount are proposed. The validation of the Voyon reservoir landslide in Italy shows that the proposed system forecasting method can greatly improve the accuracy of the forecast of the sliding time