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文章在传统的负指数网络配流理论的基础上,引入时间成本,建立了包含时间成本的负指数网络配流模型,并选取一些有代表性的港口,对东北航道和苏伊士运河航线、好望角航线及海铁联运通道进行集装箱货配流。结果表明,在不考虑气候、浮冰、基础设施等条件的限制下,如果能够实现全年通航,东北航道对集装箱货物的配流量将超过一半以上,具有极大的发展潜力。不同港口在东北航道的配流比例不仅与所在区域的纬度相关,也和所在区域与东北航道的距离远近有关。纬度越高的港口在东北航道的配流量越高,距离东北航道越近的港口在东北航道的配流比例也越大。
Based on the traditional negative exponential network allocation theory, the paper introduces the time cost and establishes a model of negative exponential network with time cost. Some representative ports are selected to analyze the distribution of northeast and Suez Canal routes, the Cape of Good Hope route and the sea Rail intermodal container cargo distribution flow. The results show that without considering the conditions of climate, ice floe, infrastructure and other conditions, if it can achieve year-round navigation, the Northeast Passage of more than half the flow of container cargo will have great potential for development. The distribution ratio of the different ports in the northeast channel is not only related to the latitude of the area, but also to the distance between the area and the northeast channel. The higher the latitude of the port in the northeast channel, the higher the allocation of traffic, from the northeast channel closer to the port in the northeast channel, the greater the proportion of the current.