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本文利用2007-2016年的季度数据根据变系数自回归分布滞后(VADL)模型,就中国房地产投资规模对货币传导机制的影响进行实证分析。分析结果表明,季度房地产开发投资额的最优比重约为13.17%,季度居民中长期消费贷款的最优比重约为11.14%。根据最优比重确定合理的房地产投资规模区间有效调控房地产投资增量,对我国房地产经济发展具有重要意义。
Based on the VADL model, quarterly data from 2007 to 2016 are used to analyze the impact of China’s real estate investment on the monetary transmission mechanism. The analysis shows that the optimal proportion of investment in real estate development in the quarter is about 13.17%, and the optimal proportion of medium- and long-term consumer loans in quarter is about 11.14%. According to the optimal proportion to determine a reasonable range of real estate investment regulation Effectively control the real estate investment increment, the development of China’s real estate economy is of great significance.