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作为迥异于因果理论的新兴理论,后效理论根植于奈特的“真正”不确定性、韦克的“感知”理论以及马奇的“蠢人技艺”等思想。后效理论的诞生代表了对创业创新行为逻辑的理解出现了一个范式上的转变。本文从理论发展周期的角度评述后效理论从何而来、现处何处及去往何方,以求较系统和客观地反映其发展脉络和面貌。相关文献覆盖了理论建立与内涵阐释、后效逻辑在真实情境中的存在性、构念测量、因果关系、理论应用和推广,以及为该理论正名等六类。从理论体系内部发展和外部扩展两方面,本文提出了后效理论未来研究的议题及建议。
As a new theory different from causal theory, the theory of aftereffect roots in Knight’s “real” uncertainty, Wake’s “perception ” theory and Marchi’s “stupid art ” and other ideas. The birth of the theory of post-efficiency represents a paradigm shift in the understanding of the logic of entrepreneurial innovation behavior. This article reviews the theory of the post-performance theory from the point of view of the theoretical development cycle, where it is from now and where it is going, in order to reflect its context and development systematically and objectively. Relevant documents cover six aspects: the establishment of theory and the interpretation of connotation, the existence of post-logic in real context, the measurement of causality, the causal relationship, the application and promotion of theory, and the rectification of the theory. From two aspects of the internal development of the theoretical system and the external expansion, this paper puts forward the topics and suggestions for the future research of the after-effects theory.