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1988年头10个月,机械电子工业总产值比上年同期增长24.5%,利税增长21.7%,许多人认为这是经济过热的表现,应当降低速度。我认为仅从发展速度高低判断经济是否过热是不够全面的,应该作更深刻的分析。第一,工业总产值增长速度中含有某些“水份”。工业总产值计算中含有大量重复计算部分。一个较大的企业分成几个独立核算的较小的企业就可以多算出总产值。企业在统计产值时把当年价格当成1980年不变价格也可以多算出总产值。种种原因都可导致统计出的工业总产值偏
In the first 10 months of 1988, the total output value of the machinery and electronics industry increased by 24.5% over the same period of last year and profits and taxes increased by 21.7%. Many people think this is a manifestation of an overheated economy and should reduce its speed. I think it is not comprehensive enough to judge whether the economy is overheating only from the speed of development. We should make a more profound analysis. First, there is some “moisture” in the rate of growth of industrial output. The calculation of gross industrial output includes a large number of double counting parts. A larger company divided into several smaller independent accounting firms can calculate the total output value. Enterprises in the statistical output value of the year when the price of 1980 unchanged prices can also calculate the total output value. All kinds of reasons can lead to statistical partial deviation of industrial output