论文部分内容阅读
采用计算机模拟方法，借助ＧＩＳＳＧＣＭＴｒａｎｓｉｅｎｔＲｕｎ和经修正的ＣＥＲＥＳ－Ｗｈｅａｔ模型以及若干农业气象指标，评估了在未来不同时段（２０１０年、２０３０年、２０５０年以及ＣＯ２有效倍增的２０６２年）全球气候变化对我国冬小麦生育期和产量的阶段性影响，分析了各地小麦生长季热量和干湿状况的演进趋势，估计了我国冬小麦安全种植北界可能发生的地理位移以及麦田灌溉需要量的变化等。目的在于勾划气候变化影响中国冬小麦生产的轮廓，为制定未来农业发展战略和农业生产对策提供科学依据。
Using computer simulation method and GISSGCMTransientRun and revised CERES-Wheat model and several agricultural meteorological indicators, we evaluated the effects of global climate change on China’s winter wheat in different periods (2010, 2030, 2050 and effective doubled CO2 in 2062) Growth stage and yield. The evolution of the heat and dry-wet conditions in wheat growing season was analyzed. The possible geographical displacement of winter wheat planting in northern China and the irrigation demand change were estimated. The purpose is to outline the impacts of climate change on the winter wheat production in China and provide a scientific basis for formulating future agricultural development strategies and agricultural production strategies.