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海域使用投资往往具有较强的不确定性、不可逆性和可延迟性特点,使得海域使用权具有期权时间价值;但中国当前基于贴现现金流的海域使用权定价方法,没有考虑这些特点及其产生的期权时间价值,导致使用权定价偏低。为此,文章将实物期权法应用于海域使用权定价,以期确定更加合理的海域使用权价格,实现海洋经济可持续发展。以2013年青岛市黄岛区琅琊镇围堰养殖海参项目海域使用权价格为例,实物期权法的定价为95.89万元/hm~2,相同条件下,贴现现金流法的定价为87.94万元/hm~2,贴现现金流法的定价低7.95万元/hm~2。而且,由于没有达到实物期权法确定的投资临界值,2013年并不适合投资;此时若投资,海域使用权价格将比达到投资临界值时低99.60万元/hm~2,会极大降低海域资源利用效率。此外,参数敏感性分析表明,实物期权法下,海域使用权价格对市场环境变化很敏感,而贴现现金流法不能体现市场环境变化的影响。研究成果可为制定我国海域使用权定价政策提供参考和借鉴。
The use of sea area investment often has strong uncertainty, irreversibility and delay characteristics, making the use of the sea area has the option time value; However, China currently discounted cash flow based sea area right pricing method, did not consider these characteristics and their production Of the time value of the option, resulting in low pricing rights. Therefore, the article applies the real option method to the pricing of the right of use of the sea area in order to determine the more reasonable price of the right to use the sea area and realize the sustainable development of the marine economy. Taking the price of the right to use sea cucumber aquaculture sea cucumber project in Langya Town, Huangdao District, Qingdao City in 2013 as an example, the real option method is priced at 958,900 yuan / hm ~ 2. Under the same conditions, the discounted cash flow method is priced at 879,400 yuan / hm ~ 2, discounted cash flow method low pricing 79,500 yuan / hm ~ 2. Moreover, since the investment cut-off value determined by the Real Option Law has not been reached, it is not suitable for investment in 2013; at this time, if the investment is made, the price of the sea use right will be lower than the investment cut-off value by RMB 996,000 / hm 2, Sea Area Resource Utilization Efficiency. In addition, the sensitivity analysis of parameters shows that under the real option method, the price of sea use right is sensitive to the market environment changes, and the discounted cash flow method can not reflect the impact of changes in the market environment. The research results can provide reference and reference for formulating the pricing policy of sea area usufruct in China.