在目前国内铝行业上游产能过剩、下游消费锐减以及冶炼成本不断上升的情况下,不少市场研究机构都认为国内电解铝行业将面临大规模减产。但笔者却持有不同的观点,认为国内出现大幅减产的可能性并不大,而且相反的,年内中国电解铝月度产量或将出现类似2011年上半年逐步增长的态势。 In the current domestic aluminum industry upstream overcapacity, downstream consumption dropped and smelting costs rising situation, many market research institutions believe that the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry will face large-scale production cuts. However, the author holds a different view. He believes that there is not much possibility of a sharp reduction in domestic production. On the contrary, the monthly output of electrolytic aluminum in China will likely show similar growth in the first half of 2011 during the year.