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研究了人因可靠性分析(Human Reliability Analysis,HRA)中人为差错概率的量化。首先,介绍了认知可靠性与差错分析方法(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method,CREAM)中基本法的基本理论,讨论了两种概率化认知控制模式的确定方法——贝叶斯网络法和模糊逻辑法,强调了概率化认知控制模式下量化人为差错概率的必要性。然后,在分析认知模式下人为差错概率分布的基础上,通过理论推导,构建了概率化认知控制模式下人为差错概率的量化方法。为了提高计算效率,提供了人为差错概率的蒙特卡洛仿真算法。最后,通过实例,演示了方法的使用过程,并证明了方法的有效性。
The quantification of human error probabilities in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) was studied. First of all, the basic theory of the basic law in Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM) is introduced. Two methods of determining the cognitive control model of probability are discussed-Bayesian network method and fuzzy Logic method, emphasizing the necessity of quantifying the probability of human error under the cognitive control model of probability. Then, based on the analysis of the probability distribution of human error under cognitive model, a quantitative method of human error probability under the cognitive control mode of probability is constructed by theoretical derivation. In order to improve the computational efficiency, a Monte Carlo simulation algorithm of artificial error probability is provided. Finally, through examples, demonstrates the use of the method and proves the effectiveness of the method.