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据国际权威机构预测,2010～2020年天然气在能源结构组成中的比例将达到35％～40％。世界已探明天然气可采资源的75％在亚洲。估计在我国与化石燃料资源有关的沉积岩覆盖面积达600×10~4km~2,具有广泛形成化石燃料资源的地质环境。目前我国化石燃料资源量构成中,天然气资源具有较大潜力。据估计,全国天然气总地质资源为38×10~(12)m~3,可采资源约为(7～8)×10~(12)m~3,主要分布在我国酉部、中部、东部和沿海大陆架四大气区。笔者认为,到2010年我国天然气资源在能源结构组成中的比例将达到8％左右,2020年达到10％以上是较为适当的。
According to the forecast of international authoritative agencies, the proportion of natural gas in the energy mix in 2010-2020 will reach 35% -40%. 75% of the world’s proven natural gas recoverable resources are in Asia. It is estimated that the area covered by sedimentary rocks related to fossil fuel resources in our country is 600 × 10 ~ 4km ~ 2, which has the extensive geological environment of fossil fuel resources. At present, China’s fossil fuel resource composition, natural gas resources have greater potential. It is estimated that the total natural gas resources in the country are 38 × 10 ~ (12) m ~ 3 and recoverable resources are about (7 ~ 8) × 10 ~ (12) m ~ 3, which are mainly distributed in the western, central and eastern parts of China And four continental shelf area along the coast. The author believes that by 2010 China’s natural gas resources in the composition of the energy structure will reach about 8%, by 2020 more than 10% is more appropriate.