论文部分内容阅读
目的介绍灰多元前移线性回归模型及其在卫生资源预测中的应用。方法将前移线性回归分析模型、灰模型和灰多元前移线性回归模型进行对比模拟实验,选择最优模型对山东省卫生床位和卫生技术人员数量进行预测。结果灰多元前移线性回归模型可以跟踪因变量的变化,得到更精确的预测值,卫生床位和卫生技术人员两个指标2014年预测值分别为53.60万张和53.07万人。结论灰多元前移线性回归模型预测效果较好,预测结果可以为卫生部门制定合理规划及政策方针提供有效的依据。
Objective To introduce the gray multivariate forward linear regression model and its application in the prediction of health resources. Methods The forward linear regression analysis model, the gray model and the gray multivariate forward linear regression model were compared and simulated. The optimal model was used to predict the number of health beds and health technicians in Shandong Province. Results The gray multivariate forward linear regression model can track the change of dependent variables to get more accurate predictive value. The predicted 2014 values of health beds and health technicians were 536,000 and 53.07 million respectively. Conclusion The gray multivariate forward linear regression model has a good predictive effect, and the prediction results can provide an effective basis for the health authorities to formulate reasonable plans and policy guidelines.