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经济波动与产业结构变动之间存在相互影响的动态关系。文章利用Moore结构变动指数测度了1961年至2008年间台湾总体产业结构变动情况,并采用CF滤波分离出台湾总体产业结构变动与经济波动的数据指标,并对其进行Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应函数及方差分解,论证了台湾产业结构变动与经济波动的因果联系和相互影响的动态关系。
There is an interactive dynamic relationship between economic fluctuations and changes in industrial structure. The article uses the Moore structural change index to measure the change of the overall industrial structure in Taiwan from 1961 to 2008 and uses the CF filter to separate the data indexes of the overall industrial structure change and economic fluctuation in Taiwan. The Granger causality test and impulse response function And variance decomposition, demonstrate the dynamic relationship between the causal link and the mutual influence between the industrial structure change and economic fluctuation in Taiwan.