台湾经济虽暂离险境,但还不应太乐观,主因美国经济复苏时程难以掌握、日元走弱,加上国内财经政策因缺乏弹性而难行,预计今年将处于通货紧缩的状态。在美国存货水位逐步舒缓下,台湾出口应可触底反弹,但幅度将视今年经济复苏情形、短期将公布的经济数据以及日元会贬到什么价位而定。台湾出口展望虽然没有太多悲观理由,但值得担心的仍是岛内经济没有好转迹象,名目利率也低到谷底,但岛内需求在金融体系疲弱、企业信用紧缩及失业率居高不下等负面因素影响下, Although Taiwan’s economy is temporarily out of the woods, it should not be too optimistic. It is mainly due to the difficult grasp of the U.S. economic recovery schedule, the weakening of the yen and the difficulty of implementing domestic financial policies due to its lack of flexibility. It is expected this year to be deflationary. With the gradual easing of stock levels in the United States, Taiwan’s exports should be able to bottom out, but the magnitude will depend on the economic recovery this year, the economic data to be announced in the short term, and the price at which the yen will be devalued. Although there are not many pessimistic reasons for Taiwan’s export prospects, the cause of concern is still the lack of signs of improvement in the economy on the island and the low nominal interest rates. However, the demand in the island has been negatively impacted by the weak financial system, corporate credit crunch and high unemployment rate Under the influence of factors,