加性噪声指数模型是经济系统中应用十分广泛的一类非线性模型。本文将模型经对数变换后,直接采用遗忘因子递推算法,同时对虚拟噪声补偿器中的控制因子的确定采用了黄金分割优选方法。大量仿真实例表明,该模型用于油田动态累积量的预测,其精度是比较理想的。 Additive noise index model is a kind of nonlinear model widely used in economic system. In this paper, the model is logarithmically transformed, and the forgetting factor recursive algorithm is used directly. At the same time, the golden section optimization method is used to determine the control factor in the virtual noise compensator. A large number of simulation examples show that the model is suitable for the prediction of the dynamic cumulants in the oilfield, and the accuracy is quite satisfactory.